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Preparing for a bullish new year.

2021 is forecasted to be a good year, just different from 2020.


November 13, 2020

By Curtis Knuth


Even J.P. Morgan Chase is getting bullish on the 2021 mortgage market. Bloomberg circulated commentary Monday afternoon following JPMC’s virtual investor conference where Chief Executive Officer for Consumer Lending, Marianne Lake, offered her comments.


“Low-interest rates and a ‘generally solid economy’ are fueling a surge in refinancing activity and propelling the purchase market, which is estimated at about $1.3 trillion this year,” Lake said adding that homeownership rates are up about 4% from last year, and up 5% among customers between the ages of 35 and 44, many of whom may be migrating away from denser urban centers amid the coronavirus pandemic.”


Additionally, Bloomberg noted that JPMorgan’s retail business, which includes their retail locations, call center, and online operations was “profitable in the first month of the year for the first January in five years.” Wow, brick and mortar is profitable!


Inventory

Inventory is tight even though housing starts (according to Census and HUD data) are exceeding recently adjusted estimates, likely due to pent up demand from the spring that included the urban to suburban push. For perspective, in January 2006 during the housing boom, national housing stats were nearly 2.3 million - 64.3 percent more than August 2020. Affordability concerns, increased material costs, and labor shortages will all keep 2021 from a record year – but national records do not need to be crushed for individual lenders shops to have terrific revenue performance.


Take Away

2021 is forecasted to be a good year, just different from 2020. I’m bullish for the coming year with the understanding that refinance will no longer carry us through the coming year. Lead generation will again be a critical operation. My recommendation for lead gen is Experian’s “In The MarketSM” score for mortgage from Service 1st.


Predictive modeling performance has leaped forward in recent years. With Experian’s In the Market score, identified consumers who score within the top 25th percentile are 80% likely within the next 120 days to enter the market for a mortgage. It’s a powerful cascading tool to leverage in your prospecting strategy to keep those pipelines full.


I encourage our readers to reach out as we near the end of this incredible year. Service 1st is ready to provide recommendations for a fine tune or overhaul of your prospecting and origination credit reporting activities today. Have a blessed week.


- Curtis


Curtis Knuth, CEO at Service 1st

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